Pumas 4 Palin

McCain leads Obama by 3% in Michigan

Posted on: September 24, 2008

According to Inside Michigan Politics poll released 9-23-09,and conducted 15-19th September, John McCain has 3% advantage over Obama 46-43. In previous polls, Obama lead by as much as six percentage points.

McCain is now showing a strong and increasing support among independents and male voters. Obama leads among the traditional Democratic base of youth, women, African-American voters and in the Detroit metro area. 6% are Undecided and 5 % say neither ticket is preferred.

This represents a virtual dead heat in a state the Democrat should be cruising to victory, what with the economy, demographics and the war (so much of Michael Moore is about Flint in particular and Michigan in general). Yet, the closeness of this poll suggest something is up. Obviously one single poll is not the end all and be all. But the details are telling.

Voters believe the McCain/Palin ticket has more experience (61% – 31%) than the Obama/Biden ticket and they trust their judgment more (48% – 41%). But when it comes
to bringing the right kind of change to Washington, the voter’s are split, – giving the
Obama/Biden ticket a one-percent edge (44% – 43%).

John McCain has a track record with Michigan Independent voters. The current polling shows that they still like him and they like and support Sarah Palin as his running mate.
John McCain is showing strength among blue–collar voters (+10%), men (+9%), white
males (+29%), conservatives (+62%) and voters living in West Michigan (+12%) and the
Flint/Saginaw/Bay City Area (+8%). 

Will This Matter in November?

Will This Matter in November?

Michigan has 17 electoral votes. Conventional wisdom has it that while McCain can reach 270 EVs without Michigan, Obama must win the state to get to that magic number. It is also believed that while Obama campaign has strong new-voter registration drives and GOTV operations, the race will tighten throughout October and hinge on turnout.

Will Michigan Democrats remember the DNC/RBC debacle of May 31 is a big question.  Are they still upset about 4 Hillary delegates that were arbitrarily re-allocated to Obama?  Will Michigan remember how it became a political football on the point of their delegates? 

So many facets to ponder, and then the debates. Michigan could well play the crucial role this year in deciding the general election that ed in the two previous cycles by Ohio and Florida.

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