Pumas 4 Palin

Awesome New Video – State of the Electoral Race

Posted on: September 19, 2008

Here we go again, the new narrative of ‘Obama has regained the lead’ is upon us and will be with us till the media gets a kick in the pants, administered by either Sarah or McCain. Not that Obama is n’t capable of doing it himself. But that’s the pattern we will be in. Dramatic changes, media telling us BO is doing great.  More smears of Sarah Palin are on the way, just about anything that McCain does will be either a gaffe, slur, slight or flaw of some sort. Then back to more polling data to show how BO is still doing great!

Don’t believe a word of it.

Obama is not doing exactly great. By all measures this should not have continued. BO should have wrapped it up six months ago, and be planning his transition team by now. But along the way he ran into a couple of ladies, Hillary and Sarah. Oh yeah, then there were the PUMAs, the Denver Group, the NObamists etc.

With six solid weeks to go, and four unpredictable debates in the pipeline, nothing is a done deal.

Click the image below for an awesome new video The Big Ten Battleground

Be warned, it’s a long video, not for the quick-fix types. With 10 states to discuss at length, it runs to about an hour and a half. The detail is exquisite, the discussion is maddeningly non-partisan and the news uptodate as of 9-17-08.

You can sit through it all, or just pick a state of your choice. I hope you enjoy it.

 

Now the Second Feature of our Double Bill

The great scholar Prof. Jay Cost is back. Throughout the primaries he delighted us with wonderful charts, dynamic spreadsheets, great poll analyses and excellent reading and talking material.

Now, Cost has a new view, the state of the race. Especially soothing to those of us overwrought by the innumberable and changeable polls coming out daily. And those easily fooled by RCP and it’s average of the average or averages nonsense.

Check this out:

             Jay cost Overview of Polls and the state of the race

Jay cost Overview of Polls and the state of the race

 

What does this chart tell you?  It reveals a lot to Jay Cost, read it all here, courtesy of RCP. It’s a rich article, again not for the anti-wonkish. I hope this doesn’t give it all away, but …

It is not unreasonable to expect a close race. Some perspective is called for here. We have in our collective memory the blowouts of 1984, 1972, and 1964. However, presidential elections in the 19th century were persistently close. Between 1876 and 1896 – all five presidential elections were decided by 5% or less. The country was also closely split in the ante-bellum period. Between 1836 and 1860, only William Henry Harrison was able to pull substantially more than 50% of the vote.

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