Pumas 4 Palin

Obama’s V.P. choice

Posted on: August 21, 2008

Well everybody is doing it, and speculation is still free in this country, so will we.

A couple of caveats:

Obama is not the nominee yet. Sen. Obama was selected  by some self-important DNC honchos who thought nothing of collusion, backroom dealing, feigned neutrality, Clinton-dislike, power moves designed to install Obama in White House, against the wishes of at least half the voters who took part during the primary season.

In all fairness, there should have been talk of an open convention all along,  no premature anointment of Obama, and absolutely no declaration of him as the presumptive nominee. But that exactly what took place. The party bigwigs figured everyone will fall in line, especially if they pushed Hillary around a bit, so they went after Hillary in a full court press fashion. So, she did what she had to, suspended her campaign, closed down the offices and web sites, and urged her followers to help Obama, per the party’s wishes . But voters don’t have to. That is the beauty of democracy, specially in America. We are so hip to propaganda, marketing gimmickry, media manipulations, we really can’t be fooled that often, that easily. Heck even Mr. Bush 43 knew that, just couldn’t get the words out right ( enjoy this Bush moment that has lately been echoed by a few Obama moments!)

So getting back to this nominee thing, we don’t have a nominee elected yet. The DNC rules explicitly state 3.  that delegates shall convene and vote freely and without duress or inducement, a candidate or candidates of their choice. That is how democracy is supposed to work, even for Democrats!

It is possible in theory, for the convention to select a ticket of Hillary/Obama.

That is the only winning ticket available for the Democrats!  But, they don’t know it, yet.

Albeit,  we have an anointed nominee that the DNC declared is the party’s presumptive standard bearer, even though a quarter to a third of the primary season’s electorate may not support this p.n.  And this p.n. is going to pick a running mate, and figuring who that is is the latest parlor game.

3 choices, 3 different variations on a losing scenario.

1.  Undaunted by falling poll numbers,  not hesitant about going boldly forward, staying the straight course that the campaign has been on, concluding that Obama can win it all by himself, and all that’s needed from the veep is a nice accent and complementary pairing (with echoes of Camelot’s north-south ticket balance), take an equally inexperienced figure, who will be loyal and quiet for 8 years (yes 8 naturally). That person would be Congressman Robert Wexler of Florida.    Result= Loss -5% margin
(Any other male, same result, narrower loss margin).

2.   Uniquely tonedeaf, and only partially cognizant   of what is really going on with sizable groups of the party electorate, having the side benefit of completing the Clinton banishment from the party, and set about a new rewrite of the history, in his own vision, Obama might chose a woman other than Hillary, such as Kathleen Sebelius or Mary Landrieu.   Result= Loss -3%

3.  Utterly despondent over the new polling,  or alternatively ultimate games-man that he all along was, might just grab a chance to fully claim the mantle of a Unity Seeker, or better a Uniter – Obama might just forget all the bitterness of the primary and simply pick Hillary as the running mate.   Result= Loss -0.5%

What do I see as the critical, decisive factors?

Debates 40%, Economy 30%, War 15%, Unforeseen 15%.

Wild Cards: Foreign events a la Georgia, security issues, scandals/exposes

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